The Scenarios
Pollyanna
Optimistic
Plateau
Pessimistic
Head
for the hills
Oil
Basics
Introduction to oil
Oil
News and Statistics
Oil
Compainies
Non-conventional
oil
Beyond
Oil
by Deffeyes (2005)
Hubbert's
Peak
by Deffeyes (2001)
Pollyanna Scenario
Expectations:
World economic growth can continue without energy constraints. While eventually oil production may be reduced that time is far in the future (30+ years) and by that time alternative energy sources such as solar, wind, fuel cell, and maybe even fusion technology will have been developed.
There are two versions of the Pollyanna Scenario: 1) those that believe that future oil finds and technological advances will allow conventional oil production to continue to increase through 2040-2050 at which time a peak will finally be reached and 2) those that believe that oil is of abiotic origin and it essentially unlimited in supply in the mantle and will continue to replenish many oil fields for hundreds of years. The second more extreme view results from a view that oil is not limited by the amount of biotic life in the past as oil is, in their view, formed naturally deep in the earth.
Assumptions:
- At least one mega-sized (100 billion barrel) oil field has yet to be discovered or potentially oil is constantly being replenished from deep in the earth
- Market forces will encourage increased capitol expenditures to locate and put new oil into production
- New technology will allow greater yield from currently producing wells
- Stated reserves, especially in the middle east are underestimates of actual proven reserves
- Alternatively, Oil supply is essentially unlimited because it has a abiotic origin
- If oil is produced abiotically the replenishment rate of oil fields will be at least enough to sustain oil production.
Social and Political ramifications:
Those that speak of never ending oil supplies are generally those that have an optimistic outlook on overall economic growth and don't see resources in general as limiting human population growth. Some advocates still have environmental concerns about the continued burning of fossil fuels but would argue that those concerns don't change the fact that there is plenty of oil to be burned.
Some authors have been very critical of current political policies in the middles east as being effected by a mind set of limited oil supply thus extreme energy optimists are often strongly opposed to any operation that appears to have anything to do with protecting/obtaining future resources.
Representative
writings:
Crying
Wolf: warnings about oil supply Michael Lynch
Closed Coffin: Ending the Debate on "The End of Cheap Oil" A commentary Michael C. Lynch, Chief Energy Economist, DRI-WEFA, Inc (2001)
Recent Presentations by the EIA Administrator and EIA Staff This is a link to a page with power point presentation given by various EIA (Energy Information Agency) personal. These give a very good overview of a US agencies general energy outlook. At times these views can verge on resembling a Pollyanna scenario although most would probably best be places within the generally optimistic approach.
The Biotic vs Abiotic origin of oil debate
A correlated debate that involves the most optimistic views of the future of oil involves the Abiotic vs Biotic origin of oil. A general description of the two competing theories of the origin of oil can be found HERE. The abiotic oil theory has its most famous advocate in the person of former astronaut Thomas Gold. Below is a description of his book on the topic from Amazon.com:
|
Suppose someone claimed that we are NOT running out of petroleum. . . . Or that life on Earth began below the surface, in the dark airless pores of our planet's rocky crust. Or that oil and gas -- so-called "fossil fuels" -- are not the product of biological debris. You might expect to hear statements like these from an author of science fiction. But what if they come from a renowned scientist, someone who has been called "one of the world's most original minds"? In THE DEEP HOT BIOSPHERE, Thomas Gold sets forth truly controversial and astonishing theories: First, he proposes that Earth supports a subterranean organic domain of greater mass and volume than the biosphere -- the total sum of living things -- on its surface. Second, he proposes that the organisms inhabiting this Deep Hot Biosphere are not plants or animals but heat-loving bacteria that survive on a diet of hydrocarbons -- natural gas and petroleum. And third and perhaps most amazingly, he advances the stunning idea that most hydrocarbons on Earth are not "fossil fuels" but part of the primordial "stuff" from which Earth itself was formed some 4.5 billion years ago. The Deep Hot Biosphere may seem difficult to believe at first glance, but its theories are supported by a growing body of evidence, and by the indisputable stature and seriousness Thomas Gold brings to any scientific enterprise. In this book we see a brilliant and boldly original thinker, increasingly a rarity in modern science, as he develops revolutionary conclusions about the fundamental workings of our planet, the origins of life on Earth, the nature of earthquakes, and even the likelihood of life on -- or within -- other planets. |
Some examples of articles against the abiotic oil theory:
The Abiotic Oil Controversy by Richard Heinberg. Heinberg takes on various points of Abiotic oil supporters. Note that Heinberg is the author of a number of books that fall into the Pessimistic and Head for the Hills Scenarios.
Abiotic Oil: Science or Politics? by Uko Bardi: Offers a quick negative assessment of the relevance of the abiotic oil theory to the politics of oil production.
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The Deep Hot Biosphere
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