OilScenarios.info

The Scenarios
Pollyanna
Optimistic
Plateau
Pessimistic
Head for the hills

Oil Basics
Introduction to oil
Oil News and Statistics
Oil Compainies
Non-conventional oil

Beyond Oil
by Deffeyes (2005)

Hubbert's Peak
by Deffeyes (2001)

Twilight in the Desert
By Matthew Simmons
(2005)


New Economy of Oil
by Mitchell, et al (2001)

Color of Oil
by Economides et al
(2000)

 

 

Expectations:

The production peak of oil is near (1-4 years away) however, market forces will allow the peak to become a plateau for several years allowing non-conventional and alternative energy sources to be developed to at least fill the gap when oil production begins to fall. However, overall growth of total energy availability is unsustainable in the long term resulting in slowed economic growth and pressure on underdeveloped societies attempting to increase their standard of living. The resulting stresses may lead to unstable world wide markets for many years and increase the chances of global conflict over limited resources.

Assumptions:

• No large oil fields are likely to be found in the future such that oil will continue to be plentiful
• Although market forces will encourage increased spending, new oil put into production will not be able to compensate for the depletion of old oil fields
• New technology allows more rapid extraction of oil but will not substantially increase the total recoverable oil from a field
• Stated reserves, especially in the middle east are overestimates of actual recoverable oil
• Non-conventional oil and alternative energy sources will not be able to completely fill the gap left by oil depletion after peak oil has occurred but will provide enough for a steady state of energy use

Is there were we are at today?

Some might argue that we are in a plateu region right now. In 2005 and going into 2006 world oil production has remained relatively stable. Demand has fluctuted and been effected a number factors such as the hurricanes of 2005. The result is a rocking back and forth between a world slightly oversupplied to just undersupplied. The quesiton is what will happen when demand picks up as it seems it most surely will baring some global catastrophe? Will oil production be able to maintain pace or has conventional oil production essentially peaked already.

Representative Books:

Energy at the Crossroads: Global Perspectives and Uncertainties. by Vaclav Smil