The Scenarios
Pollyanna
Optimistic
Plateau
Pessimistic
Head
for the hills
Oil
Basics
Introduction to oil
Oil
News and Statistics
Oil
Compainies
Non-conventional
oil
Beyond
Oil
by Deffeyes (2005)
Hubbert's
Peak
by Deffeyes (2001)
What
is the future of world oil production? None of these questions have simple answers. Today's fluctuating oil and natural gas prices have been met by many responses fom the general public, scientisits, business interests and nations. The future of energy availability is an issue for which each person should have a great concern. However, the political, scientific, and social agendas and interpretations of the future state of energy supplies make it very difficult to decipher that future. I am a profession scientist who has had a side interest in the future of oil for many years. Depite my familiarity with the issues even I find it difficult to be confident in my assessments of the future of oil supplies and energy in general. However, it is clear to me that we have come to a point in history that will be viewed by future historians as a critical juncture in time. Why? Because, the age of easy and cheap oil may be over. If it is, it may be that there will be new forms of energy or revolutionary new oil finds that will allow continued economic growth or it may be that the world will have to adjust to a very different energy climate. No matter the direction taken from here the present volatility in energy markets and many nations assures that how the future of energy is percieved (whether accurately or not!) will effect each of our lives in the days to come. This site provides a general introduction to the peak oil debate by providing an overview of five general scenarios for the future of oil and, in the minds of many, scenarios for the future of our society! |
SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE OF OIL
Pollyanna
Scenario
Oil production can be increased to meet all future demands for at least
40 years
(Details and links to articles)
Optimistic
Scenario
Oil production may slow or even decrease but when combined with conservation
and alternative resources it will be possible to meet the growing energy
demands of society for the foreseeable future
(Details and links to articles)
Plateau
Scenario
Fossil fuel production will plateau in the
next decade and alternative sources will not be able to significantly
take the place of oil resulting in a volatile energy market and restricted
world economy however people will be able to adapt lifestyles to the changing
energy environment
(Details and links to articles)
Pessimistic
Scenario
Oil production will not meet demand, forcing conservation and alternative
energy use over the next decade, however total energy resources will still
decline slowly resulting in a gradually retracting world economy
(Details and link to articles)
Head
for the Hills Scenario
Oil production will peak and decline rapidly in the near future resulting
in widespread energy shortages resulting in catastrophic collapse of many
elements of modern society due to our lack of preparation
(Details and links to articles)
A note about context: A variety of factors have been implicated as important in the oil debate. Some see the debate as geologists vs economists, supply-side economics vs demand-side, or environmental activists vs corporation. In most cases, both sides have charged the other with political or social motivations. Extreme environmentalists, radical survivalists are drawn to one side while others that dislike them gravitate the other direction. No authors, including ourselves, can completely divorce themselves from their political, social, and moral tendencies completely when evaluating the evidence regarding the future of oil. However, an awareness of the possible influences of such factors can greatly increase your ability to discern good arguments from bad. |
High Noon: 20 global problems and 20 years to solve them
by J. Richard (2003)
High
Noon for Natural Gas
by J. Darley (2004)
Hydrogen: Hot Stuff Cool Science
by R. Ewing (2004)
Alternative Energy
by Marek Walisiewicz, John Gribbin (2002)
Tomorrow's Energy
by Peter Hoffmann (2002)