OilScenarios.info

The Scenarios
Pollyanna
Optimistic
Plateau
Pessimistic
Head for the hills

Oil Basics
Introduction to oil
Oil News and Statistics
Oil Compainies
Non-conventional oil

Beyond Oil
by Deffeyes (2005)

Hubbert's Peak
by Deffeyes (2001)

Twilight in the Desert
By Matthew Simmons
(2005)


New Economy of Oil
by Mitchell, et al (2001)

Color of Oil
by Economides et al
(2000)

 

Expectations:

Oil production is already peaking or will reach its peak within four years. After oil production begins to drop even enormous efforts to drill and produce more oil will not be able counteract the depletion of the worlds largest oil fields. The result will be rapidly increasing oil prices which will bring on worldwide periods of depression that will draw down the energy demand just enough to keep outright shortages from being widespread. Nonetheless a long period of economic decline is expected eventually alleviated by new technology and turn over to use of alternative energy sources.

Pessimists view the occurrence of peak oil to be either imminent or very close. A turn to both non-conventional and alternative energy sources as not being possible on a large scale in the near future and thus there will be an unavoidable energy gap between demand and supply for the next 10-20 years.

Assumptions:

• No large oil fields are likely to be found in the future
• Although market forces will encourage increased spending, new oil put into production will not be able to compensate for the depletion of old oil fields
• New technology allows more rapid extraction of oil but will not substantially increase the total recoverable oil from a field
• Stated reserves, especially in the middle east are overestimates of actual recoverable oil
• Non-conventional oil and alternative energy sources will not be able to completely fill the gap left by oil depletion after peak oil has occurred because the technologies will take too long to fully implement and none replace all the benefits of oil without their own risks.

Social and Political consequences:

Most of the books and articles written about "peak oil" or the coming "oil crisis" have a basically pessimistic bottom line. All of these share a common belief in the what they call the geological reality of peak oil. Where they greatly differ is in their views of the effects that the oil crisis will have on society. In some cases oil demand will result in greater global political instability and leading to more armed conflicts. Oil rich countries will gain greater influence while wealthy oil-poor countries will attempt to gain control of more oil resources. Some other countries see wealthy countries being able to dot he most with high prices alternative energy sources thus mitigating the extreme effects of the energy crunch but leaving developing countries such as China and India in a much more difficult situation.

Representative writings:

The Coming Energy Crunch by By Aaron Naparstek. New York Press 2004. Written just before the 2004 presidential election this article very clearly sums up what the pessimistic scenario sees as the major issues for today's politicians.

The World Petroleum Life-Cycle. Richard C. Duncan and Walter Youngquist. This is a paper presented in 1998 to the Petroleum Technology Transfer Council at the University of California. Filled with easy to understand graphics that examine when different continents will experience peak oil production it is interesting to compare their predictions made in 1998 to what has happened in these locations since. A .pdf version of this paper can be bound HERE.

The Ugly Oil Supply Scenario by Glenn Morton. Written in 2002 Morton presents an overall picture of the evidence for peak oil and a picture of how an oil crisis might play out within this decade. Slightly outdated data now but Morton is an insider in the oil industry and so does have an interesting perspective. As with Campbell below, some aspects of Morton's view fit with the Head for the Hills Scenario.

The Peak Oil Debate: Crisis or Comedy by Matthew Simmons. PDF version of a presentation given at a conference in September 2004 by energy industry investment banker Matt Simmons. Simmons has been a leading advocate of the dangers of peak oil. He runs one of the largest investment firms that specializes in financing the energy industry and has served Vice President Dick Cheney's energy panel.

Peak Oil: an outlook on crude oil depletion by C. J. Campbell revised 2002. Campbell is the father figure of the coming oil crisis advocates. He has written and lectured extensively on the topic and is the most widely quoted individual in the debate. His book "The Coming Energy Crisis" is a must read for those that want to understand the peak oil position. Here we characterize his position in the "Pessimistic Scenario" but many aspects of his writings would place him as comfortably in the Head for the Hills Scenario.

Web pages of interest:

Oil Depletion Analysis Center (ODAC): is an independent, UK-registered educational charity working to raise international public awareness and promote better understanding of the world's oil-depletion problem. A simple, well organized, informative web site.

Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO): Most complete web site representing a peak oil view. Founded by the accepted leader of the peak oil movement, Colin Campbell. The monthly newsletter are filled with a large amount of industry data and analysis.

The DryDipstick: A metadirectory for peak oil that contains a huge number of links to current articles on peak oil and other oil data.

PeakOil.com: A news and message boards site where members post articles and information, on a daily basis, that bears on the oil depletion debate. This is a good place to go to see the most current discussion usually from pro-peak oil point of view.

Glenn Morton's Oil Crisis Page: This site has a number of writings by an industry insider who examines some of the data on oil production and directly addresses many of the assumptions of the oil optimists.

Book length treatises:

Hubbert's Peak: The impending world oil shortage by K Deffeyes (2001) Professor Emeritus Princeton University. A very good introduction to the the oil industry covering basic aspects of how oil is found and extracted. With the necessary background Deffeyes then explores Hubbert's historical projects and assesses whether his approach can be applied at a global scale. This book is both helpful to a novice to the oil question but also provides enough novel insight that it would be helpful to even those that are quite familiar with the basic concepts. A follow-up book, Beyond Oil goes "beyond" his first book and looks at possible scenarios for how the world enery scene will play out.

The Coming Oil Crisis by C. J. Campbell (2004). The most comprehensive overview of the peak oil position written by a true believer.