OilScenarios.info

The Scenarios
Pollyanna
Optimistic
Plateau
Pessimistic
Head for the hills

Oil Basics
Introduction to oil
Oil News and Statistics
Oil Compainies
Non-conventional oil

Beyond Oil
by Deffeyes (2005)

Hubbert's Peak
by Deffeyes (2001)

Twilight in the Desert
By Matthew Simmons
(2005)


New Economy of Oil
by Mitchell, et al (2001)

Color of Oil
by Economides et al
(2000)

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Optimistic Scenario

World economic will continue but only with large capital investment in additional hydrocarbon exploration along with large increases in non-conventional oil production as well as continued to advancement of alternative energy technologies. While some periods of tight oil supply may exist market forces will be adequate to stimulate increased oil production.

Assumptions:

• Stated proven reserves are generally accurate or possibly underestimated
• Market forces will continue to create higher oil production and encourage non-conventional oil and alternative energy sources
• New technology will allow greater yield from currently producing wells
• Significant amounts of oil have yet to be discovered

Economic and Political Ramifications:

Although oil may be considered a major driving force in world economics and political decision making it isn't the only factor. The whole issue of economic growth and its causes and effects represents an important philosophical issue that is inter-related to the oil debate. Economic growth is both seen as a necessity (to put off deflation and negative effects of high national and personal debt) and a reasonable expectation by some economists for the foreseeable future. For many economists that have a optimistic economic outlook, plentiful oil in the short term and optimism regarding alternative sources is required. This raises the possibility that their possibly a priori positive position on the economy will effect their examination of the oil production data. On the other hand oil pessimists may also be charged with overlooking the potential for large scale changes to alternative sources. The book "Rational Exuberance" is highlighted to the left as a featured book not because it deals directly with oil depletion but because it presents an overall optimistic world view that many who are oil optimists share. The book shows how such a basic world view will cause a person to view a number of issues through that interpretive framework.

Representative writings:

Crying Wolf: warnings about oil supply Michael Lynch 1999 at M.I.T. This article is one of the most quoted and referenced articles on the web by a well known oil industry economist who has long worked to refute the claims of peak oil advocates. This is probably the best article to read to get a feel for the connection of particular economic outlooks and how they effect or are effected by a particular view of future oil production.

Closed Coffin: Ending the Debate on "The End of Cheap Oil" A commentary Michael C. Lynch, Chief Energy Economist, DRI-WEFA, Inc (2001)

Long Term World Oil Supply Scenarios: The Future Is Neither as Bleak or Rosy as Some Assert By John H. Wood, Gary R. Long, David F. Morehouse. Aug 18, 2004. This publication of the US Energy Information Agency is probably the best representation of an generally optimistic to very optimistic outlook of estimated eventual oil recovery. The authors present a number of possible scenarios based on assumptions of future oil finds and recoverability of those finds. Below is a graph taken from the article that shows potential peak oil production years based on the probability of finding new oil reserves. There expectation is that significant new oil deposits will be found such that their "mean" value places peak oil in the year 2037. Taking their higher numbers would result in a something much closer to the Pollyanna scenario.

Related Books:

Power to the People : How the Coming Energy Revolution Will Transform an Industry, Change Our Lives, and Maybe Even Save the Planet by Vijay V. Vaitheeswaran. Although Vaitheeswaran sees changes in the energy climate those changes will work to the benefit of society. Ultimately this book is placed in the optimistic category with regards to energy because non-conventional and alternative energy sources are viewed as saving us from a real energy crunch or even plateau. A secondary effect, in the mind of the author, is that the change in energy sources will save us from many of the troubles of burning fossil fuels.

Energy at the Crossroads : Global Perspectives and Uncertainties by Vaclav Smil. Takes a optimistic view of long term prospects for energy production.

Rational Exuberance : Silencing the Enemies of Growth and Why the Future Is Better Than You Think by Michael Mandel. Combats the idea that there there are limits to economic growth in the near future.